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San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Buccaneers is the better survivor pick this week

Buccaneers score 0.310 equity (35.6% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.004.

SF team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LAOpponent@ CIN

35.8%Win prob35.6%

0.306Equity score0.310

+3.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

47.5Game total50.5

▲ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 15 meetings · SF 9 — TB 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1559.3ELO rating1487.8

#9ELO rank#18

12-5Record8-9

NFC WestDivisionNFC South

#2Division rank#2

L 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.1 · #20vs QB19.5 · #29

23.6 · #22vs RB22.2 · #18

32.2 · #21vs WR31.5 · #19

14.8 · #23vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.21 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

5.95Pressures / game7.82

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.1% · #2Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

10.8% · #17Play action8.4% · #31

0.6% · #31RPO6.4% · #11

3.0% · #23Screen pass5.1% · #5

3.7% · #26No huddle5.5% · #19

45.0% · #27Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

26.6% · #24Man coverage30.3% · #18

22.6% · #25Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

23.2% · #31Pressure34.1% · #3

SF scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)