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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.459 equity (67.2% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.149.

PIT team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs ATLOpponent@ CIN

67.2%Win prob35.6%

0.459Equity score0.310

−5.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

41.5Game total50.5

▲ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6PIT @ TBnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · PIT 6 — TB 1. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1529.4ELO rating1487.8

#13ELO rank#18

10-7Record8-9

AFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#1Division rank#2

L 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.8 · #27vs QB19.5 · #29

19.5 · #8vs RB22.2 · #18

35.2 · #26vs WR31.5 · #19

16.6 · #29vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.83 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

9Pressures / game7.82

15-18Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

43.4% · #16Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

9.2% · #27Play action8.4% · #31

7.0% · #10RPO6.4% · #11

6.6% · #1Screen pass5.1% · #5

9.7% · #7No huddle5.5% · #19

54.2% · #17Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.9% · #10Man coverage30.3% · #18

31.4% · #8Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

29.5% · #20Pressure34.1% · #3

PIT scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)