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Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Eagles play Commanders in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices PHI carries the higher survivor equity score.

PHI team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs WASOpponent@ PHI

68.3%Win prob31.7%

0.470Equity score0.280

−5.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

44.0Game total44.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · divisional · Lincoln Financial Field

Matchup: WAS @ PHI
Spread (home): −5.5 (11 books)
Total: 44.0 (11 books)
Kickoff: Sun, 13 Sep 2026 20:25

Opened PHI −4.5, now PHI −5.5 · moved 1.0 toward PHI · Total 46.5 → 44.0 (−2.5)(99 snapshots)

Forecast: 77.6°F · wind 4.5 mph · 0% precip · Clouds

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1WAS @ PHInot played yet

Week 8PHI @ WASnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · PHI 34 — WAS 21. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1589.5ELO rating1464.1

#3ELO rank#24

11-6Record5-12

NFC EastDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#3

L 4 · L 7 · W +1 · W +11 · W +31Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.5 · #10vs QB19.5 · #30

22.9 · #20vs RB25.6 · #27

26.5 · #6vs WR34.9 · #25

8.3 · #1vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.39 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

8.17Pressures / game7.47

19-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

36.4% · #28Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

10.1% · #23Play action11.9% · #11

5.4% · #14RPO6.3% · #12

2.1% · #32Screen pass3.7% · #16

15.9% · #4No huddle50.2% · #1

62.9% · #7Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.5% · #3Man coverage32.0% · #15

19.7% · #31Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

32.8% · #8Pressure31.3% · #14

PHI scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
A.J. WoodsCornerbackQuestionable
Adoree' JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
AJ DillonRunning BackOut
Azeez OjulariLinebackerOut
Brandon JohnsonCornerbackQuestionable
Brett TothCenterOut
Byron YoungDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JurgensCenterOut
Cameron LatuTight EndOut
Dallas GoedertTight EndQuestionable
Darius CooperWide ReceiverQuestionable

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)