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Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Eagles is the better survivor pick this week

Eagles score 0.459 equity (68.1% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.148.

PHI team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs WASOpponent@ CIN

68.1%Win prob35.6%

0.459Equity score0.310

−5.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

44.5Game total50.5

▲ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 19 meetings · PHI 9 — TB 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1589.5ELO rating1487.8

#3ELO rank#18

11-6Record8-9

NFC EastDivisionNFC South

#1Division rank#2

L 4 · L 7 · W +1 · W +11 · W +31Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.5 · #10vs QB19.5 · #29

22.9 · #20vs RB22.2 · #18

26.5 · #6vs WR31.5 · #19

8.3 · #1vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.39 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

8.17Pressures / game7.82

19-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

36.4% · #28Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

10.1% · #23Play action8.4% · #31

5.4% · #14RPO6.4% · #11

2.1% · #32Screen pass5.1% · #5

15.9% · #4No huddle5.5% · #19

62.9% · #7Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.5% · #3Man coverage30.3% · #18

19.7% · #31Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

32.8% · #8Pressure34.1% · #3

PHI scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
A.J. WoodsCornerbackQuestionable
Adoree' JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
AJ DillonRunning BackOut
Azeez OjulariLinebackerOut
Brandon JohnsonCornerbackQuestionable
Brett TothCenterOut
Byron YoungDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JurgensCenterOut
Cameron LatuTight EndOut
Dallas GoedertTight EndQuestionable
Darius CooperWide ReceiverQuestionable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)