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New York Jets vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jets is the better survivor pick this week

Jets score 0.354 equity (47.4% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.048.

NYJ team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ TENOpponent@ LA

47.4%Win prob35.8%

0.354Equity score0.306

+1.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

38.5Game total47.5

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · NYJ 2 — SF 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1379.3ELO rating1559.3

#30ELO rank#9

3-14Record12-5

AFC EastDivisionNFC West

#4Division rank#2

L 27 · L 32 · L 23 · L 28 · L 24Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

19.9 · #31vs QB17.1 · #20

28.0 · #31vs RB23.6 · #22

30.3 · #16vs WR32.2 · #21

15.2 · #24vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.53 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

5.18Pressures / game5.95

3-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

49.8% · #7Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

8.6% · #29Play action10.8% · #17

7.1% · #8RPO0.6% · #31

3.4% · #17Screen pass3.0% · #23

8.1% · #10No huddle3.7% · #26

59.8% · #8Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

40.5% · #6Man coverage26.6% · #24

28.3% · #13Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

24.8% · #30Pressure23.2% · #31

NYJ scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBFull Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
D'Angelo PondsCBLimited Participation in Practice

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)