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New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.459 equity (67.2% win probability) against Jets at 0.354 — a real gap of 0.105.

NYJ team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ TENOpponentvs ATL

47.4%Win prob67.2%

0.354Equity score0.459

+1.5Spread11/11 books−5.0

38.5Game total41.5

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 16 meetings · NYJ 6 — PIT 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1379.3ELO rating1529.4

#30ELO rank#13

3-14Record10-7

AFC EastDivisionAFC North

#4Division rank#1

L 27 · L 32 · L 23 · L 28 · L 24Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

19.9 · #31vs QB18.8 · #27

28.0 · #31vs RB19.5 · #8

30.3 · #16vs WR35.2 · #26

15.2 · #24vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.53 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

5.18Pressures / game9

3-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

49.8% · #7Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

8.6% · #29Play action9.2% · #27

7.1% · #8RPO7.0% · #10

3.4% · #17Screen pass6.6% · #1

8.1% · #10No huddle9.7% · #7

59.8% · #8Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

40.5% · #6Man coverage36.9% · #10

28.3% · #13Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

24.8% · #30Pressure29.5% · #20

NYJ scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBFull Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
D'Angelo PondsCBLimited Participation in Practice

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)