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New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Giants is the better survivor pick this week

Giants score 0.324 equity (40.7% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.013.

NYG team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DALOpponent@ CIN

40.7%Win prob35.6%

0.324Equity score0.310

+3.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

48.0Game total50.5

▲ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 13 meetings · NYG 8 — TB 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1390.8ELO rating1487.8

#28ELO rank#18

4-13Record8-9

NFC EastDivisionNFC South

#4Division rank#2

W +17 · W +24 · L 3 · L 8 · L 18Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.3 · #25vs QB19.5 · #29

25.8 · #29vs RB22.2 · #18

33.7 · #24vs WR31.5 · #19

11.4 · #8vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.24 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

8.41Pressures / game7.82

3-18Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

30.8% · #32Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

10.8% · #18Play action8.4% · #31

9.3% · #2RPO6.4% · #11

3.1% · #20Screen pass5.1% · #5

17.4% · #3No huddle5.5% · #19

64.8% · #6Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

40.3% · #7Man coverage30.3% · #18

30.5% · #9Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

30.2% · #17Pressure34.1% · #3

NYG scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New York Giants

Andrew ThomasTFull Participation in Practice
Anthony Johnson Jr.SafetyOut
Art GreenCornerbackQuestionable
Bryan HudsonCFull Participation in Practice
Bryce Ford-WheatonWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cam SkatteboRunning BackOut
Chris BoardLinebackerQuestionable
Cor'Dale FlottCornerbackOut
Daniel BellingerTight EndQuestionable
Dante MillerRunning BackOut
Darius AlexanderDefensive TackleOut
Darius MuasauLinebackerQuestionable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)