NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

New Orleans Saints vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Saints is the better survivor pick this week

Saints score 0.461 equity (59.9% win probability) against Commanders at 0.263 — a real gap of 0.198.

NO team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CLEOpponentvs LA
59.9%Win prob33.2%
0.461Equity score0.263
−3.0Spread11/11 books+4.5
42.5Game total48.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 12 meetings · NO 6 — WAS 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1436.2ELO rating1466.6
#28ELO rank#22
2-5Record2-4-1
NFC SouthDivisionNFC East
#4Division rank#3
L 6 · W +7 · L 10 · L 21 · L 8Last 5newest firstW +17 · L 6 · T 0 · L 17 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

—vs QB20.0 · #25
—vs RB19.8 · #9
—vs WR33.6 · #18
—vs TE20.7 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.57 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)
7.29Pressures / game10
4-12Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

49.7% · #8Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18
9.6% · #25Play action11.9% · #11
4.7% · #15RPO6.3% · #12
2.7% · #26Screen pass3.7% · #16
18.7% · #2No huddle50.2% · #1
65.7% · #5Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

22.1% · #28Man coverage32.0% · #15
25.6% · #21Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16
28.2% · #24Pressure31.3% · #14
NO scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

New Orleans Saints

  • Alvin KamaraRBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Asim RichardsTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Cesar RuizGFull Participation in Practice
  • Christen MillerDefensive TackleOut
  • CJ DonaldsonRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Davon GodchauxDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut
  • Jordyn TysonWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Justin ReidSFull Participation in Practice
  • Kelvin Banks Jr.TLimited Participation in Practice
  • Martin EmersonCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Nathan ShepherdDTFull Participation in Practice

Washington Commanders

  • Charles OmenihuDefensive EndOut
  • Colson YankoffTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Isaac YiadomCornerbackOut
  • Javon KinlawDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Javontae Jean-BaptisteLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Jayden DanielsQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Jer'Zhan NewtonDTFull Participation in Practice
  • John BatesTELimited Participation in Practice
  • Sam CosmiGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Shy TuttleDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Stefon DiggsWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Terry McLaurinWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

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