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New Orleans Saints vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Commanders is the better survivor pick this week

Commanders score 0.291 equity (31.9% win probability) against Saints at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.042.

NO team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ DETOpponent@ PHI

26.8%Win prob31.9%

0.250Equity score0.291

+7.0Spread11/11 books+5.5

50.0Game total44.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 12 meetings · NO 6 — WAS 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1432.4ELO rating1464.1

#26ELO rank#24

6-11Record5-12

NFC SouthDivisionNFC East

#4Division rank#3

L 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.0 · #8vs QB19.5 · #30

20.8 · #13vs RB25.6 · #27

27.8 · #12vs WR34.9 · #25

12.5 · #13vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.59 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

8.53Pressures / game7.47

4-11Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

49.7% · #8Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

9.6% · #25Play action11.9% · #11

4.7% · #15RPO6.3% · #12

2.7% · #26Screen pass3.7% · #16

18.7% · #2No huddle50.2% · #1

65.7% · #5Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

22.1% · #28Man coverage32.0% · #15

25.6% · #21Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

28.2% · #24Pressure31.3% · #14

NO scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Davon GodchauxDTDid Not Participate In Practice

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)