Compare

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Buccaneers is the better survivor pick this week

Buccaneers score 0.314 equity (35.7% win probability) against Saints at 0.253 — a real gap of 0.061.

NO team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ DETOpponent@ CIN

27.0%Win prob35.7%

0.253Equity score0.314

+7.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

50.0Game total50.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 15NO @ TBnot played yet

Week 18TB @ NOnot played yet

All-time series: 51 meetings · NO 28 — TB 23. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1432.4ELO rating1487.8

#26ELO rank#18

6-11Record8-9

NFC SouthDivisionNFC South

#4Division rank#2

L 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.0 · #8vs QB19.5 · #29

20.8 · #13vs RB22.2 · #18

27.8 · #12vs WR31.5 · #19

12.5 · #13vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.59 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

8.53Pressures / game7.82

4-11Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

49.7% · #8Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

9.6% · #25Play action8.4% · #31

4.7% · #15RPO6.4% · #11

2.7% · #26Screen pass5.1% · #5

18.7% · #2No huddle5.5% · #19

65.7% · #5Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

22.1% · #28Man coverage30.3% · #18

25.6% · #21Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

28.2% · #24Pressure34.1% · #3

NO scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Devaughn VeleWide ReceiverQuestionable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)