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New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

49ers is the better survivor pick this week

49ers score 0.306 equity (35.8% win probability) against Saints at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.056.

NO team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ DETOpponent@ LA

26.8%Win prob35.8%

0.250Equity score0.306

+7.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

50.0Game total47.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 21 meetings · NO 12 — SF 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1432.4ELO rating1559.3

#26ELO rank#9

6-11Record12-5

NFC SouthDivisionNFC West

#4Division rank#2

L 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.0 · #8vs QB17.1 · #20

20.8 · #13vs RB23.6 · #22

27.8 · #12vs WR32.2 · #21

12.5 · #13vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.59 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

8.53Pressures / game5.95

4-11Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

49.7% · #8Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

9.6% · #25Play action10.8% · #17

4.7% · #15RPO0.6% · #31

2.7% · #26Screen pass3.0% · #23

18.7% · #2No huddle3.7% · #26

65.7% · #5Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

22.1% · #28Man coverage26.6% · #24

25.6% · #21Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

28.2% · #24Pressure23.2% · #31

NO scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Devaughn VeleWide ReceiverQuestionable

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)