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New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.459 equity (67.2% win probability) against Saints at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.210.

NO team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ DETOpponentvs ATL

26.8%Win prob67.2%

0.250Equity score0.459

+7.0Spread11/11 books−5.0

50.0Game total41.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7PIT @ NOnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · NO 4 — PIT 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1432.4ELO rating1529.4

#26ELO rank#13

6-11Record10-7

NFC SouthDivisionAFC North

#4Division rank#1

L 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.0 · #8vs QB18.8 · #27

20.8 · #13vs RB19.5 · #8

27.8 · #12vs WR35.2 · #26

12.5 · #13vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.59 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

8.53Pressures / game9

4-11Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

49.7% · #8Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

9.6% · #25Play action9.2% · #27

4.7% · #15RPO7.0% · #10

2.7% · #26Screen pass6.6% · #1

18.7% · #2No huddle9.7% · #7

65.7% · #5Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

22.1% · #28Man coverage36.9% · #10

25.6% · #21Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

28.2% · #24Pressure29.5% · #20

NO scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Davon GodchauxDTDid Not Participate In Practice

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)