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New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.388 equity (52.6% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.097.

NE team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ SEAOpponent@ PHI

52.6%Win prob31.9%

0.388Equity score0.291

−0.0Spread4/11 books+5.5

29.5Game total44.5

▼ 0.163Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 6 meetings · NE 4 — WAS 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1561.9ELO rating1464.1

#8ELO rank#24

14-3Record5-12

AFC EastDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#3

L 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.7 · #11vs QB19.5 · #30

19.0 · #5vs RB25.6 · #27

29.2 · #13vs WR34.9 · #25

14.7 · #20vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.24 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

7.95Pressures / game7.47

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

40.2% · #24Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

10.8% · #19Play action11.9% · #11

1.3% · #30RPO6.3% · #12

2.3% · #30Screen pass3.7% · #16

2.8% · #29No huddle50.2% · #1

46.1% · #25Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.5% · #14Man coverage32.0% · #15

32.3% · #7Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

29.8% · #18Pressure31.3% · #14

NE scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)