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New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots play Seahawks in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices NE carries the higher survivor equity score.

NE team page →SEA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ SEAOpponentvs NE

52.6%Win prob47.4%

0.388Equity score0.362

−0.0Spread4/4 books−0.0

29.5Game total29.5

▼ 0.163Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.163

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · Lumen Field

Matchup: NE @ SEA
Spread (home): −0.0 (4 books)
Total: 29.5 (1 books)
Kickoff: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:20

Opened SEA −3.5, now SEA −0.0 · moved 3.5 toward NE · Total 44.5 → 29.5 (−15.0)(66 snapshots)

Forecast: 75.4°F · wind 3.9 mph · 0% precip · Clouds

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1NE @ SEAnot played yet

All-time series: 8 meetings · NE 3 — SEA 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1561.9ELO rating1630.6

#8ELO rank#1

14-3Record14-3

AFC EastDivisionNFC West

#1Division rank#1

L 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28Last 5newest firstW +16 · W +4 · W +35 · W +10 · W +17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.7 · #11vs QB14.0 · #7

19.0 · #5vs RB19.0 · #4

29.2 · #13vs WR26.3 · #4

14.7 · #20vs TE14.7 · #21

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.24 (2025)Sacks / game2.8 (2025)

7.95Pressures / game11.3

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows12-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

40.2% · #24Pre-snap motion45.8% · #13

10.8% · #19Play action10.7% · #20

1.3% · #30RPO1.9% · #28

2.3% · #30Screen pass2.6% · #29

2.8% · #29No huddle5.8% · #18

46.1% · #25Shotgun37.9% · #31

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.5% · #14Man coverage29.1% · #20

32.3% · #7Blitz (5+ rushers)20.7% · #30

29.8% · #18Pressure33.2% · #7

NE scheme profile →SEA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Seattle Seahawks

AJ BarnerTEFull Participation in Practice
AJ FinleySafetyInjured Reserve
Amari KightOffensive TackleOut
Anthony BradfordGFull Participation in Practice
Brandon PiliDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam AkersRunning BackOut
Charles CrossOffensive TackleQuestionable
Chazz SurrattLinebackerOut
Cody WhiteWide ReceiverQuestionable
Connor O'TooleLinebackerOut
Dareke YoungWide ReceiverOut
Derick HallLinebackerQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)