NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.455 equity (61.0% win probability) against Jets at 0.190 — a real gap of 0.265.

NE team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs GBOpponent@ KC
61.0%Win prob19.8%
0.455Equity score0.190
−3.0Spread11/11 books+10.0
45.5Game total47.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6NYJ @ NE19-26 · NE
Week 16NE @ NYJnot played yet

All-time series: 57 meetings · NE 43 — NYJ 14. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1557.2ELO rating1393.2
#7ELO rank#31
5-3Record2-6
AFC EastDivisionAFC East
#2Division rank#3
W +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 5 · L 3 · L 7 · W +5 · L 11

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #10vs QB18.0 · #16
18.9 · #6vs RB21.8 · #17
33.8 · #20vs WR28.8 · #9
11.9 · #8vs TE13.9 · #16

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.43 (2026)Sacks / game2.71 (2026)
8.14Pressures / game8.71
10-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

40.2% · #24Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7
10.8% · #19Play action8.6% · #29
1.3% · #30RPO7.1% · #8
2.3% · #30Screen pass3.4% · #17
2.8% · #29No huddle8.1% · #10
46.1% · #25Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.5% · #14Man coverage40.5% · #6
32.3% · #7Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13
29.8% · #18Pressure24.8% · #30
NE scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

New England Patriots

  • A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
  • Ben BrownCenterOut
  • Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
  • Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

New York Jets

  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
  • Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
  • Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
  • Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
  • Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
  • Breece HallRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
  • Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Cam JonesLinebackerOut
  • Chris Smith IISafetyOut
  • David BaileyDELimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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