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New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.388 equity (52.6% win probability) against Jets at 0.359 — a real gap of 0.029.

NE team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ SEAOpponent@ TEN

52.6%Win prob47.2%

0.388Equity score0.359

−0.0Spread4/11 books+1.5

29.5Game total38.5

▼ 0.163Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6NYJ @ NEnot played yet

Week 16NE @ NYJnot played yet

All-time series: 56 meetings · NE 42 — NYJ 14. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1561.9ELO rating1379.3

#8ELO rank#30

14-3Record3-14

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#4

L 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28Last 5newest firstL 27 · L 32 · L 23 · L 28 · L 24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.7 · #11vs QB19.9 · #31

19.0 · #5vs RB28.0 · #31

29.2 · #13vs WR30.3 · #16

14.7 · #20vs TE15.2 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.24 (2025)Sacks / game1.53 (2025)

7.95Pressures / game5.18

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

40.2% · #24Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

10.8% · #19Play action8.6% · #29

1.3% · #30RPO7.1% · #8

2.3% · #30Screen pass3.4% · #17

2.8% · #29No huddle8.1% · #10

46.1% · #25Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.5% · #14Man coverage40.5% · #6

32.3% · #7Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

29.8% · #18Pressure24.8% · #30

NE scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBFull Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
D'Angelo PondsCBLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)