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Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Vikings is the better survivor pick this week

Vikings score 0.316 equity (39.0% win probability) against Commanders at 0.268 — a real gap of 0.048.

MIN team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponentvs LA

39.0%Win prob33.3%

0.316Equity score0.268

+3.0Spread11/11 books+4.5

44.5Game total48.5

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 16WAS @ MINnot played yet

All-time series: 13 meetings · MIN 9 — WAS 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1570.6ELO rating1466.6

#4ELO rank#22

6-1Record2-4-1

NFC NorthDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#3

L 4 · W +6 · W +10 · W +5 · W +7Last 5newest firstW +17 · L 6 · T 0 · L 17 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

7.8 · #1vs QB20.0 · #25

18.4 · #5vs RB19.8 · #9

25.9 · #4vs WR33.6 · #18

7.1 · #1vs TE20.7 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.5 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)

13.33Pressures / game10

11-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.3% · #23Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

12.5% · #8Play action11.9% · #11

3.7% · #20RPO6.3% · #12

4.2% · #10Screen pass3.7% · #16

6.1% · #15No huddle50.2% · #1

45.6% · #26Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

19.0% · #32Man coverage32.0% · #15

46.2% · #1Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

34.1% · #4Pressure31.3% · #14

MIN scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron JonesRBFull Participation in Practice
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillTFull Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawTDid Not Participate In Practice
Corey KinerRunning BackOut
Desmond RidderQuarterbackOut

Washington Commanders

Charles OmenihuDefensive EndOut
Colson YankoffTEFull Participation in Practice
Isaac YiadomCornerbackOut
Javon KinlawDefensive TackleQuestionable
Javontae Jean-BaptisteLinebackerInjured Reserve
Jayden DanielsQBFull Participation in Practice
Jer'Zhan NewtonDTFull Participation in Practice
John BatesTELimited Participation in Practice
Sam CosmiGLimited Participation in Practice
Shy TuttleDTLimited Participation in Practice
Stefon DiggsWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Terry McLaurinWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)