Compare

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Vikings is the better survivor pick this week

Vikings score 0.382 equity (53.0% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.090.

MIN team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs GBOpponent@ PHI

53.0%Win prob31.9%

0.382Equity score0.291

−1.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

46.5Game total44.5

▼ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 16WAS @ MINnot played yet

All-time series: 13 meetings · MIN 9 — WAS 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1547.9ELO rating1464.1

#10ELO rank#24

9-8Record5-12

NFC NorthDivisionNFC East

#4Division rank#3

W +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

11.1 · #1vs QB19.5 · #30

19.6 · #9vs RB25.6 · #27

23.7 · #1vs WR34.9 · #25

10.7 · #5vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.88 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

9.06Pressures / game7.47

11-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.3% · #23Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

12.5% · #8Play action11.9% · #11

3.7% · #20RPO6.3% · #12

4.2% · #10Screen pass3.7% · #16

6.1% · #15No huddle50.2% · #1

45.6% · #26Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

19.0% · #32Man coverage32.0% · #15

46.2% · #1Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

34.1% · #4Pressure31.3% · #14

MIN scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)