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Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Vikings is the better survivor pick this week

Vikings score 0.382 equity (53.0% win probability) against Saints at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.132.

MIN team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs GBOpponent@ DET

53.0%Win prob26.8%

0.382Equity score0.250

−1.5Spread11/11 books+7.0

46.5Game total50.0

▼ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 5MIN @ NOnot played yet

All-time series: 17 meetings · MIN 10 — NO 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1547.9ELO rating1432.4

#10ELO rank#26

9-8Record6-11

NFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#4Division rank#4

W +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

11.1 · #1vs QB14.0 · #8

19.6 · #9vs RB20.8 · #13

23.7 · #1vs WR27.8 · #12

10.7 · #5vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.88 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

9.06Pressures / game8.53

11-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.3% · #23Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

12.5% · #8Play action9.6% · #25

3.7% · #20RPO4.7% · #15

4.2% · #10Screen pass2.7% · #26

6.1% · #15No huddle18.7% · #2

45.6% · #26Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

19.0% · #32Man coverage22.1% · #28

46.2% · #1Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

34.1% · #4Pressure28.2% · #24

MIN scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Davon GodchauxDTDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)