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Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Saints is the better survivor pick this week

Saints score 0.464 equity (60.2% win probability) against Vikings at 0.313 — a real gap of 0.151.

MIN team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponentvs CLE

39.0%Win prob60.2%

0.313Equity score0.464

+3.0Spread11/11 books−3.0

45.0Game total42.5

▲ 0.009Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 5MIN @ NO23-13 · MIN

All-time series: 18 meetings · MIN 11 — NO 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1570.6ELO rating1436.2

#4ELO rank#28

6-1Record2-5

NFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#1Division rank#4

L 4 · W +6 · W +10 · W +5 · W +7Last 5newest firstL 6 · W +7 · L 10 · L 21 · L 8

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

7.8 · #1vs QB—

18.4 · #5vs RB—

25.9 · #4vs WR—

7.1 · #1vs TE—

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.5 (2026)Sacks / game2.57 (2026)

13.33Pressures / game7.29

11-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.3% · #23Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

12.5% · #8Play action9.6% · #25

3.7% · #20RPO4.7% · #15

4.2% · #10Screen pass2.7% · #26

6.1% · #15No huddle18.7% · #2

45.6% · #26Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

19.0% · #32Man coverage22.1% · #28

46.2% · #1Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

34.1% · #4Pressure28.2% · #24

MIN scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron JonesRBFull Participation in Practice
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillTFull Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawTDid Not Participate In Practice
Corey KinerRunning BackOut
Desmond RidderQuarterbackOut

New Orleans Saints

Alvin KamaraRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Asim RichardsTLimited Participation in Practice
Cesar RuizGFull Participation in Practice
Christen MillerDefensive TackleOut
CJ DonaldsonRBLimited Participation in Practice
Davon GodchauxDefensive TackleQuestionable
Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut
Jordyn TysonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Justin ReidSFull Participation in Practice
Kelvin Banks Jr.TLimited Participation in Practice
Martin EmersonCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nathan ShepherdDTFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)