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Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Dolphins is the better survivor pick this week

Dolphins score 0.326 equity (39.5% win probability) against Commanders at 0.297 — a real gap of 0.029.

MIA team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LVOpponent@ PHI

39.5%Win prob32.2%

0.326Equity score0.297

+3.0Spread11/11 books+5.5

40.5Game total44.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · MIA 5 — WAS 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.1ELO rating1464.1

#21ELO rank#24

7-10Record5-12

AFC EastDivisionNFC East

#3Division rank#3

L 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #23vs QB19.5 · #30

25.5 · #26vs RB25.6 · #27

29.9 · #14vs WR34.9 · #25

16.2 · #28vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game7.47

7-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.9% · #1Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

12.9% · #6Play action11.9% · #11

4.4% · #16RPO6.3% · #12

5.2% · #4Screen pass3.7% · #16

3.1% · #28No huddle50.2% · #1

57.9% · #13Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

28.4% · #21Man coverage32.0% · #15

33.1% · #5Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

27.2% · #28Pressure31.3% · #14

MIA scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)