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Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Dolphins is the better survivor pick this week

Dolphins score 0.326 equity (39.5% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.020.

MIA team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LVOpponent@ LA

39.5%Win prob35.8%

0.326Equity score0.306

+3.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

40.5Game total47.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2MIA @ SFnot played yet

All-time series: 8 meetings · MIA 5 — SF 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.1ELO rating1559.3

#21ELO rank#9

7-10Record12-5

AFC EastDivisionNFC West

#3Division rank#2

L 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #23vs QB17.1 · #20

25.5 · #26vs RB23.6 · #22

29.9 · #14vs WR32.2 · #21

16.2 · #28vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game5.95

7-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.9% · #1Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

12.9% · #6Play action10.8% · #17

4.4% · #16RPO0.6% · #31

5.2% · #4Screen pass3.0% · #23

3.1% · #28No huddle3.7% · #26

57.9% · #13Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

28.4% · #21Man coverage26.6% · #24

33.1% · #5Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

27.2% · #28Pressure23.2% · #31

MIA scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)