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Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

49ers is the better survivor pick this week

49ers score 0.561 equity (79.4% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.230 — a real gap of 0.331.

MIA team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DETOpponentvs LV

26.5%Win prob79.4%

0.230Equity score0.561

+7.0Spread11/11 books−10.0

50.5Game total52.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2MIA @ SF13-35 · SF

All-time series: 9 meetings · MIA 5 — SF 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1442.8ELO rating1575.5

#27ELO rank#3

1-6Record6-1

AFC EastDivisionNFC West

#4Division rank#1

L 5 · W +3 · L 7 · L 5 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 9 · W +6 · W +3 · W +10 · W +6

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

20.0 · #24vs QB—

26.5 · #25vs RB—

25.4 · #3vs WR—

19.2 · #26vs TE—

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1 (2026)Sacks / game2.14 (2026)

6.83Pressures / game9.71

7-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows24-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.9% · #1Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

12.9% · #6Play action10.8% · #17

4.4% · #16RPO0.6% · #31

5.2% · #4Screen pass3.0% · #23

3.1% · #28No huddle3.7% · #26

57.9% · #13Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

28.4% · #21Man coverage26.6% · #24

33.1% · #5Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

27.2% · #28Pressure23.2% · #31

MIA scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLBLimited Participation in Practice
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

San Francisco 49ers

Christian KirkWRLimited Participation in Practice
Christian McCaffreyRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Deebo Samuel Sr.WRDid Not Participate In Practice
Demarcus RobinsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLBLimited Participation in Practice
Kurtis RourkeQuarterbackOut
Luke GiffordLBLimited Participation in Practice
Marques SigleSLimited Participation in Practice
Mike EvansWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Mykel WilliamsDEFull Participation in Practice
Nate HobbsCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BosaDELimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)