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Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.459 equity (67.2% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.324 — a real gap of 0.136.

MIA team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LVOpponentvs ATL

39.8%Win prob67.2%

0.324Equity score0.459

+3.0Spread11/11 books−5.0

40.5Game total41.5

▼ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 11 meetings · MIA 3 — PIT 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.1ELO rating1529.4

#21ELO rank#13

7-10Record10-7

AFC EastDivisionAFC North

#3Division rank#1

L 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #23vs QB18.8 · #27

25.5 · #26vs RB19.5 · #8

29.9 · #14vs WR35.2 · #26

16.2 · #28vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game9

7-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.9% · #1Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

12.9% · #6Play action9.2% · #27

4.4% · #16RPO7.0% · #10

5.2% · #4Screen pass6.6% · #1

3.1% · #28No huddle9.7% · #7

57.9% · #13Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

28.4% · #21Man coverage36.9% · #10

33.1% · #5Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

27.2% · #28Pressure29.5% · #20

MIA scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)