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Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jets is the better survivor pick this week

Jets score 0.359 equity (47.2% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.326 — a real gap of 0.034.

MIA team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LVOpponent@ TEN

39.5%Win prob47.2%

0.326Equity score0.359

+3.0Spread11/11 books+1.5

40.5Game total38.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7MIA @ NYJnot played yet

Week 12NYJ @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · MIA 28 — NYJ 26. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.1ELO rating1379.3

#21ELO rank#30

7-10Record3-14

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#4

L 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24Last 5newest firstL 27 · L 32 · L 23 · L 28 · L 24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #23vs QB19.9 · #31

25.5 · #26vs RB28.0 · #31

29.9 · #14vs WR30.3 · #16

16.2 · #28vs TE15.2 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game1.53 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game5.18

7-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.9% · #1Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

12.9% · #6Play action8.6% · #29

4.4% · #16RPO7.1% · #8

5.2% · #4Screen pass3.4% · #17

3.1% · #28No huddle8.1% · #10

57.9% · #13Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

28.4% · #21Man coverage40.5% · #6

33.1% · #5Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

27.2% · #28Pressure24.8% · #30

MIA scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBFull Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
D'Angelo PondsCBLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)