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Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Dolphins is the better survivor pick this week

Dolphins score 0.230 equity (26.5% win probability) against Jets at 0.188 — a real gap of 0.043.

MIA team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DETOpponent@ KC

26.5%Win prob19.6%

0.230Equity score0.188

+7.0Spread11/11 books+10.0

50.5Game total47.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7MIA @ NYJ28-25 · MIA

Week 12NYJ @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · MIA 29 — NYJ 26. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1442.8ELO rating1393.2

#27ELO rank#31

1-6Record2-6

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#4Division rank#3

L 5 · W +3 · L 7 · L 5 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 5 · L 3 · L 7 · W +5 · L 11

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

20.0 · #24vs QB18.0 · #16

26.5 · #25vs RB21.8 · #17

25.4 · #3vs WR28.8 · #9

19.2 · #26vs TE13.9 · #16

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1 (2026)Sacks / game2.71 (2026)

6.83Pressures / game8.71

7-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.9% · #1Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

12.9% · #6Play action8.6% · #29

4.4% · #16RPO7.1% · #8

5.2% · #4Screen pass3.4% · #17

3.1% · #28No huddle8.1% · #10

57.9% · #13Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

28.4% · #21Man coverage40.5% · #6

33.1% · #5Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

27.2% · #28Pressure24.8% · #30

MIA scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLBLimited Participation in Practice
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBLimited Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
David BaileyDELimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)