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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.388 equity (52.6% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.324 — a real gap of 0.065.

MIA team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LVOpponent@ SEA

39.8%Win prob52.6%

0.324Equity score0.388

+3.0Spread11/4 books−0.0

40.5Game total29.5

▼ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 8NE @ MIAnot played yet

Week 18MIA @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · MIA 25 — NE 29. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.1ELO rating1561.9

#21ELO rank#8

7-10Record14-3

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#1

L 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #23vs QB14.7 · #11

25.5 · #26vs RB19.0 · #5

29.9 · #14vs WR29.2 · #13

16.2 · #28vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game7.95

7-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.9% · #1Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

12.9% · #6Play action10.8% · #19

4.4% · #16RPO1.3% · #30

5.2% · #4Screen pass2.3% · #30

3.1% · #28No huddle2.8% · #29

57.9% · #13Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

28.4% · #21Man coverage32.5% · #14

33.1% · #5Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

27.2% · #28Pressure29.8% · #18

MIA scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)