Compare

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.455 equity (61.0% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.231 — a real gap of 0.224.

MIA team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DETOpponentvs GB

26.5%Win prob61.0%

0.231Equity score0.455

+7.0Spread11/11 books−3.0

50.5Game total45.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 8NE @ MIA24-19 · NE

Week 18MIA @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · MIA 25 — NE 30. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1442.8ELO rating1557.2

#27ELO rank#7

1-6Record5-3

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#4Division rank#2

L 5 · W +3 · L 7 · L 5 · L 14Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

20.0 · #24vs QB15.1 · #10

26.5 · #25vs RB18.9 · #6

25.4 · #3vs WR33.8 · #20

19.2 · #26vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)

6.83Pressures / game8.14

7-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.9% · #1Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

12.9% · #6Play action10.8% · #19

4.4% · #16RPO1.3% · #30

5.2% · #4Screen pass2.3% · #30

3.1% · #28No huddle2.8% · #29

57.9% · #13Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

28.4% · #21Man coverage32.5% · #14

33.1% · #5Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

27.2% · #28Pressure29.8% · #18

MIA scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLBLimited Participation in Practice
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

New England Patriots

A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
Ben BrownCenterOut
Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)