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Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Rams is the better survivor pick this week

Rams score 0.444 equity (64.2% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.153.

LA team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs SFOpponent@ PHI

64.2%Win prob31.9%

0.444Equity score0.291

−3.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

47.5Game total44.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9LA @ WASnot played yet

All-time series: 14 meetings · LA 7 — WAS 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1582.5ELO rating1464.1

#5ELO rank#24

12-5Record5-12

NFC WestDivisionNFC East

#3Division rank#3

L 4 · W +3 · W +3 · W +17 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.2 · #14vs QB19.5 · #30

20.6 · #12vs RB25.6 · #27

31.7 · #20vs WR34.9 · #25

13.1 · #15vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.6 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

11.05Pressures / game7.47

16-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.6% · #4Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

15.8% · #1Play action11.9% · #11

0.4% · #32RPO6.3% · #12

3.0% · #21Screen pass3.7% · #16

6.0% · #17No huddle50.2% · #1

34.8% · #32Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

27.0% · #23Man coverage32.0% · #15

20.8% · #29Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

32.1% · #9Pressure31.3% · #14

LA scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Los Angeles Rams

Aaron DonaldDEOut
Ahkello WitherspoonCornerbackQuestionable
Alaric JacksonTFull Participation in Practice
Alex WardLong SnapperOut
Anthony TorresTight EndInjured Reserve
Beaux LimmerCenterOut
Byron YoungLBFull Participation in Practice
Colby ParkinsonTight EndOut
D.J. HumphriesOffensive TackleOut
Darious WilliamsCornerbackOut
Davante AdamsWide ReceiverQuestionable
David QuessenberryOffensive TackleOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)