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Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Rams is the better survivor pick this week

Rams score 0.444 equity (64.2% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.134.

LA team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs SFOpponent@ CIN

64.2%Win prob35.6%

0.444Equity score0.310

−3.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

47.5Game total50.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 17LA @ TBnot played yet

All-time series: 18 meetings · LA 11 — TB 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1582.5ELO rating1487.8

#5ELO rank#18

12-5Record8-9

NFC WestDivisionNFC South

#3Division rank#2

L 4 · W +3 · W +3 · W +17 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.2 · #14vs QB19.5 · #29

20.6 · #12vs RB22.2 · #18

31.7 · #20vs WR31.5 · #19

13.1 · #15vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.6 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

11.05Pressures / game7.82

16-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.6% · #4Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

15.8% · #1Play action8.4% · #31

0.4% · #32RPO6.4% · #11

3.0% · #21Screen pass5.1% · #5

6.0% · #17No huddle5.5% · #19

34.8% · #32Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

27.0% · #23Man coverage30.3% · #18

20.8% · #29Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

32.1% · #9Pressure34.1% · #3

LA scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Los Angeles Rams

Aaron DonaldDEOut
Ahkello WitherspoonCornerbackQuestionable
Alaric JacksonTFull Participation in Practice
Alex WardLong SnapperOut
Anthony TorresTight EndInjured Reserve
Beaux LimmerCenterOut
Byron YoungLBFull Participation in Practice
Colby ParkinsonTight EndOut
D.J. HumphriesOffensive TackleOut
Darious WilliamsCornerbackOut
Davante AdamsWide ReceiverQuestionable
David QuessenberryOffensive TackleOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)