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Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Rams play 49ers in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices LA carries the higher survivor equity score.

LA team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs SFOpponent@ LA

64.2%Win prob35.8%

0.444Equity score0.306

−3.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

47.5Game total47.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · divisional · Melbourne Cricket Ground

Matchup: SF @ LA
Spread (home): −3.5 (11 books)
Total: 47.5 (11 books)
Kickoff: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:35

Opened LA −3.5, now LA −3.5 · no spread move yet · Total 48.5 → 47.5 (−1.0)(86 snapshots)

Forecast: 58.9°F · wind 5.4 mph · 0% precip · Clear

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1SF @ LAnot played yet

Week 14LA @ SFnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · LA 24 — SF 30 · 1 ties. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1582.5ELO rating1559.3

#5ELO rank#9

12-5Record12-5

NFC WestDivisionNFC West

#3Division rank#2

L 4 · W +3 · W +3 · W +17 · L 3Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.2 · #14vs QB17.1 · #20

20.6 · #12vs RB23.6 · #22

31.7 · #20vs WR32.2 · #21

13.1 · #15vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.6 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

11.05Pressures / game5.95

16-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.6% · #4Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

15.8% · #1Play action10.8% · #17

0.4% · #32RPO0.6% · #31

3.0% · #21Screen pass3.0% · #23

6.0% · #17No huddle3.7% · #26

34.8% · #32Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

27.0% · #23Man coverage26.6% · #24

20.8% · #29Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

32.1% · #9Pressure23.2% · #31

LA scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Los Angeles Rams

Aaron DonaldDEOut
Ahkello WitherspoonCornerbackQuestionable
Alaric JacksonTFull Participation in Practice
Alex WardLong SnapperOut
Anthony TorresTight EndInjured Reserve
Beaux LimmerCenterOut
Byron YoungLBFull Participation in Practice
Colby ParkinsonTight EndOut
D.J. HumphriesOffensive TackleOut
Darious WilliamsCornerbackOut
Davante AdamsWide ReceiverQuestionable
David QuessenberryOffensive TackleOut

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)