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Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Rams is the better survivor pick this week

Rams score 0.444 equity (64.2% win probability) against Saints at 0.253 — a real gap of 0.191.

LA team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs SFOpponent@ DET

64.2%Win prob27.0%

0.444Equity score0.253

−3.5Spread11/11 books+7.0

47.5Game total50.0

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 23 meetings · LA 14 — NO 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1582.5ELO rating1432.4

#5ELO rank#26

12-5Record6-11

NFC WestDivisionNFC South

#3Division rank#4

L 4 · W +3 · W +3 · W +17 · L 3Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.2 · #14vs QB14.0 · #8

20.6 · #12vs RB20.8 · #13

31.7 · #20vs WR27.8 · #12

13.1 · #15vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.6 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

11.05Pressures / game8.53

16-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.6% · #4Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

15.8% · #1Play action9.6% · #25

0.4% · #32RPO4.7% · #15

3.0% · #21Screen pass2.7% · #26

6.0% · #17No huddle18.7% · #2

34.8% · #32Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

27.0% · #23Man coverage22.1% · #28

20.8% · #29Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

32.1% · #9Pressure28.2% · #24

LA scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Los Angeles Rams

Aaron DonaldDEOut
Ahkello WitherspoonCornerbackQuestionable
Alaric JacksonTFull Participation in Practice
Alex WardLong SnapperOut
Anthony TorresTight EndInjured Reserve
Beaux LimmerCenterOut
Byron YoungLBFull Participation in Practice
Colby ParkinsonTight EndOut
D.J. HumphriesOffensive TackleOut
Darious WilliamsCornerbackOut
Davante AdamsWide ReceiverQuestionable
David QuessenberryOffensive TackleOut

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Devaughn VeleWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)