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Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chargers is the better survivor pick this week

Chargers score 0.551 equity (80.1% win probability) against Saints at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.302.

LAC team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs ARIOpponent@ DET

80.1%Win prob26.8%

0.551Equity score0.250

−9.5Spread11/11 books+7.0

47.5Game total50.0

▲ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · LAC 2 — NO 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1536.9ELO rating1432.4

#11ELO rank#26

11-6Record6-11

AFC WestDivisionNFC South

#2Division rank#4

L 13 · L 16 · L 4 · W +17 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.6 · #2vs QB14.0 · #8

18.7 · #3vs RB20.8 · #13

27.4 · #11vs WR27.8 · #12

10.5 · #4vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.78 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

8Pressures / game8.53

15-16Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.2% · #19Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

11.5% · #14Play action9.6% · #25

2.0% · #27RPO4.7% · #15

2.8% · #25Screen pass2.7% · #26

3.9% · #25No huddle18.7% · #2

59.0% · #10Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

23.6% · #27Man coverage22.1% · #28

22.1% · #27Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

31.3% · #12Pressure28.2% · #24

LAC scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Bud DupreeLinebackerQuestionable
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Dez FitzpatrickWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Donte JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCornerbackOut

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Davon GodchauxDTDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(mentions Chargers)