NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Las Vegas Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Buccaneers is the better survivor pick this week

Buccaneers score 0.250 equity (29.4% win probability) against Raiders at 0.188 — a real gap of 0.062.

LV team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ SFOpponent@ CHI
20.6%Win prob29.4%
0.188Equity score0.250
+10.0Spread11/11 books+6.0
52.0Game total47.5
▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · LV 4 — TB 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1432.0ELO rating1474.2
#29ELO rank#19
4-4Record3-5
AFC WestDivisionNFC South
#3Division rank#2
W +5 · L 14 · L 3 · L 28 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +16 · W +30 · L 7 · W +8 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

19.8 · #23vs QB11.6 · #3
25.3 · #21vs RB16.9 · #1
33.8 · #19vs WR28.5 · #8
18.2 · #25vs TE14.8 · #19

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)
11.14Pressures / game7.43
8-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows11-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.4% · #22Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5
12.4% · #9Play action8.4% · #31
3.2% · #23RPO6.4% · #11
4.1% · #12Screen pass5.1% · #5
7.4% · #13No huddle5.5% · #19
54.2% · #19Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.9% · #29Man coverage30.3% · #18
22.4% · #26Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3
27.8% · #27Pressure34.1% · #3
LV scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Las Vegas Raiders

  • Adam ButlerDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Aidan O'ConnellQuarterbackOut
  • AJ ColePunterQuestionable
  • Alex CappaGuardQuestionable
  • Andre Carter IIDefensive EndQuestionable
  • Brock BowersTight EndOut
  • Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
  • Caleb RogersGuardOut
  • Charles SnowdenDefensive EndOut
  • Darien PorterCBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Darnay HolmesCornerbackOut
  • Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyOut
  • Baker MayfieldQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
  • Cade OttonTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Cody MauchGFull Participation in Practice
  • Elijah RobertsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Emeka EgbukaWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jalen McMillanWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Kenny GainwellRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • SirVocea DennisLinebackerOut
  • Tykee SmithSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Yaya DiabyLBDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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