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Las Vegas Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Raiders is the better survivor pick this week

Raiders score 0.426 equity (60.2% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.116.

LV team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs MIAOpponent@ CIN

60.2%Win prob35.6%

0.426Equity score0.310

−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

40.5Game total50.5

▲ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · LV 4 — TB 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1373.0ELO rating1487.8

#31ELO rank#18

3-14Record8-9

AFC WestDivisionNFC South

#4Division rank#2

W +2 · L 24 · L 2 · L 31 · L 7Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.1 · #16vs QB19.5 · #29

23.4 · #21vs RB22.2 · #18

33.5 · #22vs WR31.5 · #19

10.1 · #2vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.12 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

6.76Pressures / game7.82

8-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.4% · #22Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

12.4% · #9Play action8.4% · #31

3.2% · #23RPO6.4% · #11

4.1% · #12Screen pass5.1% · #5

7.4% · #13No huddle5.5% · #19

54.2% · #19Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.9% · #29Man coverage30.3% · #18

22.4% · #26Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

27.8% · #27Pressure34.1% · #3

LV scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Las Vegas Raiders

Adam ButlerDefensive TackleQuestionable
Aidan O'ConnellQuarterbackOut
AJ ColePunterQuestionable
Alex CappaGuardQuestionable
Andre Carter IIDefensive EndQuestionable
Ashton JeantyRBFull Participation in Practice
Brock BowersTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Caleb RogersGuardOut
Charles SnowdenDefensive EndOut
Darnay HolmesCornerbackOut
Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)