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Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Raiders is the better survivor pick this week

Raiders score 0.426 equity (60.2% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.120.

LV team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs MIAOpponent@ LA

60.2%Win prob35.8%

0.426Equity score0.306

−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

40.5Game total47.5

▲ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9LV @ SFnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · LV 2 — SF 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1373.0ELO rating1559.3

#31ELO rank#9

3-14Record12-5

AFC WestDivisionNFC West

#4Division rank#2

W +2 · L 24 · L 2 · L 31 · L 7Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.1 · #16vs QB17.1 · #20

23.4 · #21vs RB23.6 · #22

33.5 · #22vs WR32.2 · #21

10.1 · #2vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.12 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

6.76Pressures / game5.95

8-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.4% · #22Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

12.4% · #9Play action10.8% · #17

3.2% · #23RPO0.6% · #31

4.1% · #12Screen pass3.0% · #23

7.4% · #13No huddle3.7% · #26

54.2% · #19Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.9% · #29Man coverage26.6% · #24

22.4% · #26Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

27.8% · #27Pressure23.2% · #31

LV scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Las Vegas Raiders

Adam ButlerDefensive TackleQuestionable
Aidan O'ConnellQuarterbackOut
AJ ColePunterQuestionable
Alex CappaGuardQuestionable
Andre Carter IIDefensive EndQuestionable
Ashton JeantyRBFull Participation in Practice
Brock BowersTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Caleb RogersGuardOut
Charles SnowdenDefensive EndOut
Darnay HolmesCornerbackOut
Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)