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Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.414 equity (56.9% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.108.

KC team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponent@ LA

56.9%Win prob35.8%

0.414Equity score0.306

−2.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

43.5Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 16SF @ KCnot played yet

All-time series: 10 meetings · KC 7 — SF 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1559.3

#16ELO rank#9

6-11Record12-5

AFC WestDivisionNFC West

#3Division rank#2

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB17.1 · #20

19.4 · #6vs RB23.6 · #22

27.3 · #10vs WR32.2 · #21

11.0 · #7vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game5.95

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

8.1% · #32Play action10.8% · #17

11.5% · #1RPO0.6% · #31

4.7% · #7Screen pass3.0% · #23

2.4% · #32No huddle3.7% · #26

67.6% · #2Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage26.6% · #24

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

33.6% · #6Pressure23.2% · #31

KC scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 18 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)