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Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Rams is the better survivor pick this week

Rams score 0.444 equity (64.2% win probability) against Chiefs at 0.410 — a real gap of 0.034.

KC team page →LA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponentvs SF

56.8%Win prob64.2%

0.410Equity score0.444

−2.5Spread11/11 books−3.5

43.5Game total47.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 13KC @ LAnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · KC 6 — LA 1. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1582.5

#16ELO rank#5

6-11Record12-5

AFC WestDivisionNFC West

#3Division rank#3

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 4 · W +3 · W +3 · W +17 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB15.2 · #14

19.4 · #6vs RB20.6 · #12

27.3 · #10vs WR31.7 · #20

11.0 · #7vs TE13.1 · #15

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.6 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game11.05

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion50.6% · #4

8.1% · #32Play action15.8% · #1

11.5% · #1RPO0.4% · #32

4.7% · #7Screen pass3.0% · #21

2.4% · #32No huddle6.0% · #17

67.6% · #2Shotgun34.8% · #32

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage27.0% · #23

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)20.8% · #29

33.6% · #6Pressure32.1% · #9

KC scheme profile →LA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Ashton GillotteDEFull Participation in Practice
Chamarri ConnerSDid Not Participate In Practice
Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDefensive TackleOut
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDefensive EndOut
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable

Los Angeles Rams

Aaron DonaldDEOut
Ahkello WitherspoonCornerbackQuestionable
Alaric JacksonTFull Participation in Practice
Alex WardLong SnapperOut
Anthony TorresTight EndInjured Reserve
Beaux LimmerCenterOut
Byron YoungLBFull Participation in Practice
Colby ParkinsonTight EndOut
D.J. HumphriesOffensive TackleOut
Darious WilliamsCornerbackOut
Davante AdamsWide ReceiverQuestionable
David QuessenberryOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)