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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.555 equity (80.5% win probability) against Commanders at 0.263 — a real gap of 0.292.

JAX team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ BALOpponentvs LA

80.5%Win prob33.2%

0.555Equity score0.263

−10.0Spread11/11 books+4.5

39.5Game total48.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 17WAS @ JAXnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · JAX 1 — WAS 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1543.1ELO rating1466.6

#11ELO rank#22

5-2Record2-4-1

AFC SouthDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#3

W +35 · L 3 · W +2 · W +5 · W +29Last 5newest firstW +17 · L 6 · T 0 · L 17 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

14.3 · #9vs QB20.0 · #25

17.0 · #2vs RB19.8 · #9

36.9 · #24vs WR33.6 · #18

11.0 · #7vs TE20.7 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.67 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)

9.5Pressures / game10

5-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #12Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

10.2% · #22Play action11.9% · #11

3.6% · #21RPO6.3% · #12

3.8% · #15Screen pass3.7% · #16

6.1% · #16No huddle50.2% · #1

50.5% · #24Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

25.4% · #26Man coverage32.0% · #15

27.3% · #18Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

27.9% · #26Pressure31.3% · #14

JAX scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Jacksonville Jaguars

Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
Antonio JohnsonSLimited Participation in Practice
Bhayshul TutenRBQuestionable
Branson CombsLBLimited Participation in Practice
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBLimited Participation in Practice
DaVon HamiltonDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Eric MurraySDid Not Participate In Practice
Ezra ClevelandGLimited Participation in Practice
Jakobi MeyersWRLimited Participation in Practice
Jarrian JonesCBLimited Participation in Practice
Travon WalkerDEQuestionable

Washington Commanders

Charles OmenihuDefensive EndOut
Colson YankoffTEFull Participation in Practice
Isaac YiadomCornerbackOut
Javon KinlawDefensive TackleQuestionable
Javontae Jean-BaptisteLinebackerInjured Reserve
Jayden DanielsQBFull Participation in Practice
Jer'Zhan NewtonDTFull Participation in Practice
John BatesTELimited Participation in Practice
Sam CosmiGLimited Participation in Practice
Shy TuttleDTLimited Participation in Practice
Stefon DiggsWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Terry McLaurinWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Jaguars)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)