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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.244.

JAX team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CLEOpponent@ PHI

77.7%Win prob31.9%

0.536Equity score0.291

−8.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

40.0Game total44.5

▲ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 17WAS @ JAXnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · JAX 1 — WAS 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1528.9ELO rating1464.1

#14ELO rank#24

13-4Record5-12

AFC SouthDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.9 · #15vs QB19.5 · #30

18.7 · #2vs RB25.6 · #27

31.2 · #17vs WR34.9 · #25

14.8 · #22vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

9.28Pressures / game7.47

5-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #12Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

10.2% · #22Play action11.9% · #11

3.6% · #21RPO6.3% · #12

3.8% · #15Screen pass3.7% · #16

6.1% · #16No huddle50.2% · #1

50.5% · #24Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

25.4% · #26Man coverage32.0% · #15

27.3% · #18Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

27.9% · #26Pressure31.3% · #14

JAX scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)