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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Steelers at 0.459 — a real gap of 0.077.

JAX team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CLEOpponentvs ATL

77.7%Win prob67.2%

0.536Equity score0.459

−8.5Spread11/11 books−5.0

40.0Game total41.5

▲ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 14PIT @ JAXnot played yet

All-time series: 20 meetings · JAX 11 — PIT 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1528.9ELO rating1529.4

#14ELO rank#13

13-4Record10-7

AFC SouthDivisionAFC North

#1Division rank#1

L 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.9 · #15vs QB18.8 · #27

18.7 · #2vs RB19.5 · #8

31.2 · #17vs WR35.2 · #26

14.8 · #22vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

9.28Pressures / game9

5-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #12Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

10.2% · #22Play action9.2% · #27

3.6% · #21RPO7.0% · #10

3.8% · #15Screen pass6.6% · #1

6.1% · #16No huddle9.7% · #7

50.5% · #24Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

25.4% · #26Man coverage36.9% · #10

27.3% · #18Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

27.9% · #26Pressure29.5% · #20

JAX scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)