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Jacksonville Jaguars vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Saints at 0.248 — a real gap of 0.288.

JAX team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CLEOpponent@ DET

77.7%Win prob26.6%

0.536Equity score0.248

−9.0Spread11/11 books+7.0

40.0Game total50.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · JAX 3 — NO 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1528.9ELO rating1432.4

#14ELO rank#26

13-4Record6-11

AFC SouthDivisionNFC South

#1Division rank#4

L 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.9 · #15vs QB14.0 · #8

18.7 · #2vs RB20.8 · #13

31.2 · #17vs WR27.8 · #12

14.8 · #22vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

9.28Pressures / game8.53

5-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #12Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

10.2% · #22Play action9.6% · #25

3.6% · #21RPO4.7% · #15

3.8% · #15Screen pass2.7% · #26

6.1% · #16No huddle18.7% · #2

50.5% · #24Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

25.4% · #26Man coverage22.1% · #28

27.3% · #18Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

27.9% · #26Pressure28.2% · #24

JAX scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Davon GodchauxDTDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)