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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.554 equity (80.4% win probability) against Raiders at 0.188 — a real gap of 0.366.

JAX team page →LV team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ BALOpponent@ SF

80.4%Win prob20.6%

0.554Equity score0.188

−10.0Spread11/11 books+10.0

39.5Game total52.0

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 10 meetings · JAX 6 — LV 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1543.1ELO rating1432.0

#11ELO rank#29

5-2Record4-4

AFC SouthDivisionAFC West

#1Division rank#3

W +35 · L 3 · W +2 · W +5 · W +29Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 14 · L 3 · L 28 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

14.3 · #9vs QB19.8 · #23

17.0 · #2vs RB25.3 · #21

36.9 · #24vs WR33.8 · #19

11.0 · #7vs TE18.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.67 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)

9.5Pressures / game11.14

5-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #12Pre-snap motion41.4% · #22

10.2% · #22Play action12.4% · #9

3.6% · #21RPO3.2% · #23

3.8% · #15Screen pass4.1% · #12

6.1% · #16No huddle7.4% · #13

50.5% · #24Shotgun54.2% · #19

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

25.4% · #26Man coverage21.9% · #29

27.3% · #18Blitz (5+ rushers)22.4% · #26

27.9% · #26Pressure27.8% · #27

JAX scheme profile →LV scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Jacksonville Jaguars

Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
Antonio JohnsonSLimited Participation in Practice
Bhayshul TutenRBQuestionable
Branson CombsLBLimited Participation in Practice
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBLimited Participation in Practice
DaVon HamiltonDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Eric MurraySDid Not Participate In Practice
Ezra ClevelandGLimited Participation in Practice
Jakobi MeyersWRLimited Participation in Practice
Jarrian JonesCBLimited Participation in Practice
Travon WalkerDEQuestionable

Las Vegas Raiders

Adam ButlerDefensive TackleQuestionable
Aidan O'ConnellQuarterbackOut
AJ ColePunterQuestionable
Alex CappaGuardQuestionable
Andre Carter IIDefensive EndQuestionable
Brock BowersTight EndOut
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Caleb RogersGuardOut
Charles SnowdenDefensive EndOut
Darien PorterCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Darnay HolmesCornerbackOut
Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Jaguars)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)