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Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Colts is the better survivor pick this week

Colts score 0.331 equity (38.6% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.039.

IND team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponent@ PHI

38.6%Win prob31.9%

0.331Equity score0.291

+3.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

48.0Game total44.5

▲ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4IND @ WASnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · IND 5 — WAS 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1464.1

#23ELO rank#24

8-9Record5-12

AFC SouthDivisionNFC East

#3Division rank#3

L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB19.5 · #30

20.0 · #10vs RB25.6 · #27

36.1 · #31vs WR34.9 · #25

15.2 · #25vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

9.88Pressures / game7.47

6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

13.6% · #4Play action11.9% · #11

7.2% · #7RPO6.3% · #12

2.7% · #28Screen pass3.7% · #16

4.7% · #21No huddle50.2% · #1

58.7% · #12Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage32.0% · #15

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

29.6% · #19Pressure31.3% · #14

IND scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySFull Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTEFull Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony RichardsonQBFull Participation in Practice
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)