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Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.459 equity (67.2% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.129.

IND team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponentvs ATL

38.6%Win prob67.2%

0.331Equity score0.459

+3.5Spread11/11 books−5.0

48.0Game total41.5

▲ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 5IND @ PITnot played yet

All-time series: 15 meetings · IND 4 — PIT 11. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1529.4

#23ELO rank#13

8-9Record10-7

AFC SouthDivisionAFC North

#3Division rank#1

L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB18.8 · #27

20.0 · #10vs RB19.5 · #8

36.1 · #31vs WR35.2 · #26

15.2 · #25vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

9.88Pressures / game9

6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

13.6% · #4Play action9.2% · #27

7.2% · #7RPO7.0% · #10

2.7% · #28Screen pass6.6% · #1

4.7% · #21No huddle9.7% · #7

58.7% · #12Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage36.9% · #10

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

29.6% · #19Pressure29.5% · #20

IND scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySFull Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTEFull Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony RichardsonQBFull Participation in Practice
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)