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Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Eagles is the better survivor pick this week

Eagles score 0.459 equity (68.1% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.128.

IND team page →PHI team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponentvs WAS

38.6%Win prob68.1%

0.331Equity score0.459

+3.5Spread11/11 books−5.5

48.0Game total44.5

▲ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 14IND @ PHInot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · IND 3 — PHI 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1589.5

#23ELO rank#3

8-9Record11-6

AFC SouthDivisionNFC East

#3Division rank#1

L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 7 · W +1 · W +11 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB14.5 · #10

20.0 · #10vs RB22.9 · #20

36.1 · #31vs WR26.5 · #6

15.2 · #25vs TE8.3 · #1

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.39 (2025)

9.88Pressures / game8.17

6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows19-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion36.4% · #28

13.6% · #4Play action10.1% · #23

7.2% · #7RPO5.4% · #14

2.7% · #28Screen pass2.1% · #32

4.7% · #21No huddle15.9% · #4

58.7% · #12Shotgun62.9% · #7

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage43.5% · #3

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)19.7% · #31

29.6% · #19Pressure32.8% · #8

IND scheme profile →PHI scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySLimited Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTELimited Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
A.J. WoodsCornerbackQuestionable
Adoree' JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
AJ DillonRunning BackOut
Azeez OjulariLinebackerOut
Brandon JohnsonCornerbackQuestionable
Brett TothCenterOut
Byron YoungDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JurgensCenterOut
Cameron LatuTight EndOut
Dallas GoedertTight EndQuestionable
Darius CooperWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)