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Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Texans is the better survivor pick this week

Texans score 0.361 equity (47.2% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.050.

HOU team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponent@ CIN

47.2%Win prob35.6%

0.361Equity score0.310

+1.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

45.0Game total50.5

▲ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · HOU 5 — TB 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1573.1ELO rating1487.8

#6ELO rank#18

12-5Record8-9

AFC SouthDivisionNFC South

#2Division rank#2

L 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.8 · #3vs QB19.5 · #29

20.1 · #11vs RB22.2 · #18

25.9 · #3vs WR31.5 · #19

12.3 · #11vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

8.42Pressures / game7.82

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

11.2% · #16Play action8.4% · #31

1.3% · #29RPO6.4% · #11

2.2% · #31Screen pass5.1% · #5

3.6% · #27No huddle5.5% · #19

51.0% · #23Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage30.3% · #18

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

30.7% · #15Pressure34.1% · #3

HOU scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)