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Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Texans is the better survivor pick this week

Texans score 0.352 equity (47.3% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.046.

HOU team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponent@ LA

47.3%Win prob35.8%

0.352Equity score0.306

+1.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

45.0Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 6 meetings · HOU 2 — SF 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1573.1ELO rating1559.3

#6ELO rank#9

12-5Record12-5

AFC SouthDivisionNFC West

#2Division rank#2

L 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.8 · #3vs QB17.1 · #20

20.1 · #11vs RB23.6 · #22

25.9 · #3vs WR32.2 · #21

12.3 · #11vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.95 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

8.42Pressures / game5.95

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

11.2% · #16Play action10.8% · #17

1.3% · #29RPO0.6% · #31

2.2% · #31Screen pass3.0% · #23

3.6% · #27No huddle3.7% · #26

51.0% · #23Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage26.6% · #24

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

30.7% · #15Pressure23.2% · #31

HOU scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)