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Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Texans is the better survivor pick this week

Texans score 0.362 equity (47.3% win probability) against Saints at 0.248 — a real gap of 0.114.

HOU team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponent@ DET

47.3%Win prob26.6%

0.362Equity score0.248

+1.5Spread11/11 books+7.0

44.5Game total50.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 6 meetings · HOU 3 — NO 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1573.1ELO rating1432.4

#6ELO rank#26

12-5Record6-11

AFC SouthDivisionNFC South

#2Division rank#4

L 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.8 · #3vs QB14.0 · #8

20.1 · #11vs RB20.8 · #13

25.9 · #3vs WR27.8 · #12

12.3 · #11vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

8.42Pressures / game8.53

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

11.2% · #16Play action9.6% · #25

1.3% · #29RPO4.7% · #15

2.2% · #31Screen pass2.7% · #26

3.6% · #27No huddle18.7% · #2

51.0% · #23Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage22.1% · #28

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

30.7% · #15Pressure28.2% · #24

HOU scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Davon GodchauxDTDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)