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Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.388 equity (52.6% win probability) against Texans at 0.352 — a real gap of 0.036.

HOU team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponent@ SEA

47.3%Win prob52.6%

0.352Equity score0.388

+1.5Spread11/4 books−0.0

45.0Game total29.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 16 meetings · HOU 4 — NE 12. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1573.1ELO rating1561.9

#6ELO rank#8

12-5Record14-3

AFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#1

L 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.8 · #3vs QB14.7 · #11

20.1 · #11vs RB19.0 · #5

25.9 · #3vs WR29.2 · #13

12.3 · #11vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

8.42Pressures / game7.95

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

11.2% · #16Play action10.8% · #19

1.3% · #29RPO1.3% · #30

2.2% · #31Screen pass2.3% · #30

3.6% · #27No huddle2.8% · #29

51.0% · #23Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage32.5% · #14

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

30.7% · #15Pressure29.8% · #18

HOU scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)