NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Rams

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Texans is the better survivor pick this week

Texans score 0.485 equity (68.0% win probability) against Rams at 0.482 — a real gap of 0.004.

HOU team page →LA team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponent@ WAS
68.0%Win prob66.7%
0.485Equity score0.482
−5.5Spread11/11 books−4.5
40.5Game total48.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 6 meetings · HOU 1 — LA 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1507.0ELO rating1543.5
#16ELO rank#10
2-5Record4-4
AFC SouthDivisionNFC West
#2Division rank#3
L 6 · W +3 · W +23 · L 4 · L 2Last 5newest firstW +15 · W +14 · L 2 · L 3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

—vs QB16.0 · #12
—vs RB19.9 · #10
—vs WR26.8 · #5
—vs TE10.6 · #6

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2026)Sacks / game1.43 (2026)
9.71Pressures / game7.57
10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows17-17

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion50.6% · #4
11.2% · #16Play action15.8% · #1
1.3% · #29RPO0.4% · #32
2.2% · #31Screen pass3.0% · #21
3.6% · #27No huddle6.0% · #17
51.0% · #23Shotgun34.8% · #32

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage27.0% · #23
22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)20.8% · #29
30.7% · #15Pressure32.1% · #9
HOU scheme profile →LA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

  • Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
  • Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
  • Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
  • Azeez Al-ShaairLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Blake FisherTFull Participation in Practice
  • Braden SmithTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
  • Brevin JordanTELimited Participation in Practice
  • British BrooksRunning BackOut
  • C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
  • C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
  • Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable

Los Angeles Rams

  • Bill MurrayGuardOut
  • CJ DanielsWide ReceiverOut
  • Colby ParkinsonTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Grant StuardLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Jaylen WatsonCBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Joe CardonaLSDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jordan WhittingtonWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Josaiah StewartLinebackerQuestionable
  • Kam CurlSDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Kamren KinchensSafetyOut
  • Larrell MurchisonDefensive EndOut
  • Matthew StaffordQBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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