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Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chargers is the better survivor pick this week

Chargers score 0.551 equity (80.1% win probability) against Texans at 0.361 — a real gap of 0.191.

HOU team page →LAC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponentvs ARI

47.2%Win prob80.1%

0.361Equity score0.551

+1.5Spread11/11 books−9.5

45.0Game total47.5

▲ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9HOU @ LACnot played yet

All-time series: 11 meetings · HOU 5 — LAC 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1573.1ELO rating1536.9

#6ELO rank#11

12-5Record11-6

AFC SouthDivisionAFC West

#2Division rank#2

L 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2Last 5newest firstL 13 · L 16 · L 4 · W +17 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.8 · #3vs QB12.6 · #2

20.1 · #11vs RB18.7 · #3

25.9 · #3vs WR27.4 · #11

12.3 · #11vs TE10.5 · #4

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.78 (2025)

8.42Pressures / game8

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-16

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion42.2% · #19

11.2% · #16Play action11.5% · #14

1.3% · #29RPO2.0% · #27

2.2% · #31Screen pass2.8% · #25

3.6% · #27No huddle3.9% · #25

51.0% · #23Shotgun59.0% · #10

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage23.6% · #27

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)22.1% · #27

30.7% · #15Pressure31.3% · #12

HOU scheme profile →LAC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Bud DupreeLinebackerQuestionable
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Dez FitzpatrickWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Donte JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(mentions Chargers)