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Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Texans is the better survivor pick this week

Texans score 0.487 equity (67.7% win probability) against Raiders at 0.189 — a real gap of 0.299.

HOU team page →LV team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponent@ SF

67.7%Win prob20.6%

0.487Equity score0.189

−5.5Spread11/11 books+10.0

40.5Game total52.0

▲ 0.007Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 14 meetings · HOU 9 — LV 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1507.0ELO rating1432.0

#16ELO rank#29

2-5Record4-4

AFC SouthDivisionAFC West

#2Division rank#3

L 6 · W +3 · W +23 · L 4 · L 2Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 14 · L 3 · L 28 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

—vs QB19.8 · #23

—vs RB25.3 · #21

—vs WR33.8 · #19

—vs TE18.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)

9.71Pressures / game11.14

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion41.4% · #22

11.2% · #16Play action12.4% · #9

1.3% · #29RPO3.2% · #23

2.2% · #31Screen pass4.1% · #12

3.6% · #27No huddle7.4% · #13

51.0% · #23Shotgun54.2% · #19

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage21.9% · #29

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)22.4% · #26

30.7% · #15Pressure27.8% · #27

HOU scheme profile →LV scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLBLimited Participation in Practice
Blake FisherTFull Participation in Practice
Braden SmithTLimited Participation in Practice
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTELimited Participation in Practice
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable

Las Vegas Raiders

Adam ButlerDefensive TackleQuestionable
Aidan O'ConnellQuarterbackOut
AJ ColePunterQuestionable
Alex CappaGuardQuestionable
Andre Carter IIDefensive EndQuestionable
Brock BowersTight EndOut
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Caleb RogersGuardOut
Charles SnowdenDefensive EndOut
Darien PorterCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Darnay HolmesCornerbackOut
Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)