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Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.555 equity (80.5% win probability) against Texans at 0.479 — a real gap of 0.076.

HOU team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponent@ BAL

66.9%Win prob80.5%

0.479Equity score0.555

−4.5Spread11/11 books−10.0

40.5Game total39.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6HOU @ JAX34-31 · HOU

Week 15JAX @ HOUnot played yet

All-time series: 49 meetings · HOU 33 — JAX 16. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1507.0ELO rating1543.1

#16ELO rank#11

2-5Record5-2

AFC SouthDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#1

L 6 · W +3 · W +23 · L 4 · L 2Last 5newest firstW +35 · L 3 · W +2 · W +5 · W +29

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

—vs QB14.3 · #9

—vs RB17.0 · #2

—vs WR36.9 · #24

—vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2026)Sacks / game1.67 (2026)

9.71Pressures / game9.5

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

11.2% · #16Play action10.2% · #22

1.3% · #29RPO3.6% · #21

2.2% · #31Screen pass3.8% · #15

3.6% · #27No huddle6.1% · #16

51.0% · #23Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage25.4% · #26

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

30.7% · #15Pressure27.9% · #26

HOU scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLBLimited Participation in Practice
Blake FisherTFull Participation in Practice
Braden SmithTLimited Participation in Practice
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTELimited Participation in Practice
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable

Jacksonville Jaguars

Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
Antonio JohnsonSLimited Participation in Practice
Bhayshul TutenRBQuestionable
Branson CombsLBLimited Participation in Practice
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBLimited Participation in Practice
DaVon HamiltonDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Eric MurraySDid Not Participate In Practice
Ezra ClevelandGLimited Participation in Practice
Jakobi MeyersWRLimited Participation in Practice
Jarrian JonesCBLimited Participation in Practice
Travon WalkerDEQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Jaguars)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)