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Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.535 equity (77.6% win probability) against Texans at 0.352 — a real gap of 0.182.

HOU team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponentvs CLE

47.3%Win prob77.6%

0.352Equity score0.535

+1.5Spread11/11 books−8.5

45.0Game total40.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6HOU @ JAXnot played yet

Week 15JAX @ HOUnot played yet

All-time series: 48 meetings · HOU 32 — JAX 16. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1573.1ELO rating1528.9

#6ELO rank#14

12-5Record13-4

AFC SouthDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#1

L 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.8 · #3vs QB15.9 · #15

20.1 · #11vs RB18.7 · #2

25.9 · #3vs WR31.2 · #17

12.3 · #11vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.95 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

8.42Pressures / game9.28

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

11.2% · #16Play action10.2% · #22

1.3% · #29RPO3.6% · #21

2.2% · #31Screen pass3.8% · #15

3.6% · #27No huddle6.1% · #16

51.0% · #23Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage25.4% · #26

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

30.7% · #15Pressure27.9% · #26

HOU scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)