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Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Packers is the better survivor pick this week

Packers score 0.300 equity (39.5% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.049.

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ NEOpponent@ CHI
39.5%Win prob29.4%
0.300Equity score0.250
+3.0Spread11/11 books+6.0
45.5Game total47.5
▲ 0.009Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4GB @ TB17-14 · GB

All-time series: 19 meetings · GB 9 — TB 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1531.1ELO rating1474.2
#13ELO rank#19
5-3Record3-5
NFC NorthDivisionNFC South
#4Division rank#2
W +8 · L 3 · W +10 · W +24 · W +3Last 5newest firstW +16 · W +30 · L 7 · W +8 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

12.6 · #5vs QB11.6 · #3
25.5 · #23vs RB16.9 · #1
35.0 · #22vs WR28.5 · #8
9.0 · #2vs TE14.8 · #19

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.75 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)
9.38Pressures / game7.43
19-16-1Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows11-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5
11.7% · #12Play action8.4% · #31
7.9% · #4RPO6.4% · #11
3.3% · #18Screen pass5.1% · #5
7.2% · #14No huddle5.5% · #19
52.2% · #21Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage30.3% · #18
21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3
30.7% · #16Pressure34.1% · #3

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

  • Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Chris BrooksRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Christian WatsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Devonte WyattDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Javon HargraveDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Jayden ReedWide ReceiverOut
  • Josh WhyleTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Keisean NixonCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Matthew GoldenWide ReceiverQuestionable
  • Micah ParsonsLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Sean RhyanCDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Travis GloverGDid Not Participate In Practice

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyOut
  • Baker MayfieldQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
  • Cade OttonTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Cody MauchGFull Participation in Practice
  • Elijah RobertsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Emeka EgbukaWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jalen McMillanWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Kenny GainwellRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • SirVocea DennisLinebackerOut
  • Tykee SmithSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Yaya DiabyLBDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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