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Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.388 equity (52.6% win probability) against Packers at 0.368 — a real gap of 0.020.

GB team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponent@ SEA

47.0%Win prob52.6%

0.368Equity score0.388

+1.5Spread11/4 books−0.0

46.5Game total29.5

▲ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9GB @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · GB 3 — NE 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1527.4ELO rating1561.9

#15ELO rank#8

9-7-1Record14-3

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#1

L 4 · L 13 · L 17 · L 6 · L 8Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.0 · #12vs QB14.7 · #11

21.9 · #17vs RB19.0 · #5

31.3 · #18vs WR29.2 · #13

12.1 · #10vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

10Pressures / game7.95

17-15-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

11.7% · #12Play action10.8% · #19

7.9% · #4RPO1.3% · #30

3.3% · #18Screen pass2.3% · #30

7.2% · #14No huddle2.8% · #29

52.2% · #21Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage32.5% · #14

21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

30.7% · #16Pressure29.8% · #18

GB scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
Anthony BeltonOffensive TackleOut
Barryn SorrellLBLimited Participation in Practice
Bo MeltonCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon McManusPlace KickerOut
Brenton Cox Jr.Defensive EndQuestionable
Christian WatsonWide ReceiverOut
Collin OliverDefensive EndOut
Devonte WyattDTLimited Participation in Practice
Donovan JenningsGuardOut
Dontayvion WicksWide ReceiverQuestionable
Edgerrin CooperLinebackerOut

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)