NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Packers play Patriots in Week 9

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices NE carries the higher survivor equity score.

GB team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ NEOpponentvs GB
39.0%Win prob61.0%
0.295Equity score0.455
+3.0Spread11/11 books−3.0
45.5Game total45.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 9 · Gillette Stadium

Matchup
GB @ NE
Spread (home)
−3.0 (11 books)
Total
45.5 (11 books)
Kickoff
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 21:25

Opened NE −1.5, now NE −3.0 · moved 1.5 toward NE · Total 46.5 → 45.5 (−1.0)(176 snapshots)

Forecast: 54.1°F · wind 10.4 mph · 0% precip · Clear

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9GB @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · GB 3 — NE 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1531.1ELO rating1557.2
#13ELO rank#7
5-3Record5-3
NFC NorthDivisionAFC East
#4Division rank#2
W +8 · L 3 · W +10 · W +24 · W +3Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

12.6 · #5vs QB15.1 · #10
25.5 · #23vs RB18.9 · #6
35.0 · #22vs WR33.8 · #20
9.0 · #2vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.75 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)
9.38Pressures / game8.14
19-16-1Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24
11.7% · #12Play action10.8% · #19
7.9% · #4RPO1.3% · #30
3.3% · #18Screen pass2.3% · #30
7.2% · #14No huddle2.8% · #29
52.2% · #21Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage32.5% · #14
21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7
30.7% · #16Pressure29.8% · #18
GB scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

  • Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Chris BrooksRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Christian WatsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Devonte WyattDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Javon HargraveDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Jayden ReedWide ReceiverOut
  • Josh WhyleTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Keisean NixonCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Matthew GoldenWide ReceiverQuestionable
  • Micah ParsonsLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Sean RhyanCDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Travis GloverGDid Not Participate In Practice

New England Patriots

  • A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
  • Ben BrownCenterOut
  • Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
  • Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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