NFL Survivor Edge

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Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Packers play Vikings in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices MIN carries the higher survivor equity score.

GB team page →MIN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs GB
47.0%Win prob53.0%
0.367Equity score0.383
+1.5Spread11/11 books−1.5
46.5Game total46.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · divisional · U.S. Bank Stadium

Matchup
GB @ MIN
Spread (home)
−1.5 (11 books)
Total
46.5 (11 books)
Kickoff
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 20:25

Opened MIN −1.3, now MIN −1.5 · moved 0.3 toward MIN · Total 45.0 → 46.5 (+1.5)(86 snapshots)

No in-horizon weather forecast stored for this game yet.

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1GB @ MINnot played yet
Week 10MIN @ GBnot played yet

All-time series: 56 meetings · GB 31 — MIN 23 · 2 ties. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1527.4ELO rating1547.9
#15ELO rank#10
9-7-1Record9-8
NFC NorthDivisionNFC North
#2Division rank#4
L 4 · L 13 · L 17 · L 6 · L 8Last 5newest firstW +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.0 · #12vs QB11.1 · #1
21.9 · #17vs RB19.6 · #9
31.3 · #18vs WR23.7 · #1
12.1 · #10vs TE10.7 · #5

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.88 (2025)
10Pressures / game9.06
17-15-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows11-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion41.3% · #23
11.7% · #12Play action12.5% · #8
7.9% · #4RPO3.7% · #20
3.3% · #18Screen pass4.2% · #10
7.2% · #14No huddle6.1% · #15
52.2% · #21Shotgun45.6% · #26

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage19.0% · #32
21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)46.2% · #1
30.7% · #16Pressure34.1% · #4
GB scheme profile →MIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

  • Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Anthony BeltonOffensive TackleOut
  • Barryn SorrellLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Bo MeltonCornerbackQuestionable
  • Brandon McManusPlace KickerOut
  • Brenton Cox Jr.Defensive EndQuestionable
  • Christian WatsonWide ReceiverOut
  • Collin OliverDefensive EndOut
  • Devonte WyattDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Donovan JenningsGuardOut
  • Dontayvion WicksWide ReceiverQuestionable
  • Edgerrin CooperLinebackerOut

Minnesota Vikings

  • Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
  • Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
  • Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
  • Austin KeysLinebackerOut
  • Ben SimsTight EndOut
  • Ben YurosekTight EndOut
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
  • Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
  • Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
  • Corey KinerRunning BackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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