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Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Packers is the better survivor pick this week

Packers score 0.368 equity (47.0% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.324 — a real gap of 0.044.

GB team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponent@ LV

47.0%Win prob39.8%

0.368Equity score0.324

+1.5Spread11/11 books+3.0

46.5Game total40.5

▲ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 15MIA @ GBnot played yet

All-time series: 8 meetings · GB 6 — MIA 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1527.4ELO rating1475.1

#15ELO rank#21

9-7-1Record7-10

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#3

L 4 · L 13 · L 17 · L 6 · L 8Last 5newest firstL 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.0 · #12vs QB18.2 · #23

21.9 · #17vs RB25.5 · #26

31.3 · #18vs WR29.9 · #14

12.1 · #10vs TE16.2 · #28

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

10Pressures / game7.65

17-15-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

11.7% · #12Play action12.9% · #6

7.9% · #4RPO4.4% · #16

3.3% · #18Screen pass5.2% · #4

7.2% · #14No huddle3.1% · #28

52.2% · #21Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage28.4% · #21

21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

30.7% · #16Pressure27.2% · #28

GB scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
Anthony BeltonOffensive TackleOut
Barryn SorrellLBLimited Participation in Practice
Bo MeltonCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon McManusPlace KickerOut
Brenton Cox Jr.Defensive EndQuestionable
Christian WatsonWide ReceiverOut
Collin OliverDefensive EndOut
Devonte WyattDTLimited Participation in Practice
Donovan JenningsGuardOut
Dontayvion WicksWide ReceiverQuestionable
Edgerrin CooperLinebackerOut

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)