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Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chargers is the better survivor pick this week

Chargers score 0.551 equity (80.1% win probability) against Packers at 0.367 — a real gap of 0.184.

GB team page →LAC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs ARI

47.0%Win prob80.1%

0.367Equity score0.551

+1.5Spread11/11 books−9.5

46.5Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · GB 6 — LAC 1. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1527.4ELO rating1536.9

#15ELO rank#11

9-7-1Record11-6

NFC NorthDivisionAFC West

#2Division rank#2

L 4 · L 13 · L 17 · L 6 · L 8Last 5newest firstL 13 · L 16 · L 4 · W +17 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.0 · #12vs QB12.6 · #2

21.9 · #17vs RB18.7 · #3

31.3 · #18vs WR27.4 · #11

12.1 · #10vs TE10.5 · #4

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.78 (2025)

10Pressures / game8

17-15-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-16

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion42.2% · #19

11.7% · #12Play action11.5% · #14

7.9% · #4RPO2.0% · #27

3.3% · #18Screen pass2.8% · #25

7.2% · #14No huddle3.9% · #25

52.2% · #21Shotgun59.0% · #10

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage23.6% · #27

21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)22.1% · #27

30.7% · #16Pressure31.3% · #12

GB scheme profile →LAC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
Anthony BeltonOffensive TackleOut
Barryn SorrellLBLimited Participation in Practice
Bo MeltonCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon McManusPlace KickerOut
Brenton Cox Jr.Defensive EndQuestionable
Christian WatsonWide ReceiverOut
Collin OliverDefensive EndOut
Devonte WyattDTLimited Participation in Practice
Donovan JenningsGuardOut
Dontayvion WicksWide ReceiverQuestionable
Edgerrin CooperLinebackerOut

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Bud DupreeLinebackerQuestionable
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Dez FitzpatrickWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Donte JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(mentions Chargers)